Alternative Scenarios: Negative Scenario 1

Description

As the global focus of attention switched from the G8 to the G20 in the last decade, Japan found itself potentially facing a diluted capacity to influence the world stage, particularly as this shift removed Tokyo’s status as the only member from outside the Euro-North American block. Yet, successive Japanese leaderships have continued to place great importance upon meetings of the group and endorse its role in securing stable global governance.1 The sheer scope of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s agenda heading into this year’s Osaka G20 summit, however, makes the likelihood of comprehensive success in fulfilling its goals highly limited at best, and extremely (perhaps even dangerously) optimistic at worst. Focusing on the key areas of politics, economics, and security identified by Japan’s leader, below I discuss the what, why and how of this mostly negative scenario. In so doing, I outline some of the potential challenges facing the Abe administration in the coming months and years – most of which are likely to be affected relatively little by his best intentions amid the goings-on of this high-profile meeting of world leaders and financial representatives.2