Alternative Scenarios: Negative Scenario II

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Two months after the G20, Abe Shinzo can look back with satisfaction that, despite failing to secure the “supermajority” that the ruling LDP party would have needed to secure constitutional revision, he had scored a comfortable summer 2019 election victory,1 suggesting that he had made good use of the opportunity to host the G20 to springboard towards continued domestic success. In so doing, Abe had consolidated his grip on power and all but confirmed his status as Japan’s longest serving postwar prime minister.2 Yet, looking at Abe’s foreign policy results tells a less positive story. The two months were consumed with bilateral tensions with Moon Jae-in and difficult balancing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping with trade negotiations of vital importance to Japan and Abe’s legacy hanging precariously on Trump’s whims.