A mathematical model of the indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination

T. Van Effelterre, M. Soriano-Gabarro, S. Debrus, E. Claire Newbern, J. J. Gray

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Abstract

Rotavirus (RV) infections progressively confer natural immunity against subsequent infection. Similarly to natural infection, vaccination with a live attenuated vaccine potentially reduces RV transmission and induces herd protection. A mathematical transmission model was developed to project the impact of a vaccination programme on the incidence of RV infection and disease for five countries in the European Union. With vaccination coverage rates of 70%, 90% and 95% the model predicted that, in addition to the direct effect of vaccination, herd protection induced a reduction in RV-related gastroenteritis (GE) incidence of 25%, 22% and 20%, respectively, for RV-GE of any severity, and of 19%, 15%, and 13%, respectively, for moderate-to-severe RV-GE, 5 years after implementation of a vaccination programme.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)884-897
Number of pages14
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume138
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2010

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