A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

Michael J. Hollaway; Keith J. Beven; Clare Mc W. H. Benskin; Adrian L. Collins; Robert Evans; Peter D. Falloon; Kirsty J. Forber; Kevin M. Hiscock; Ron Kahana; Christopher J. A. Macleod; Mary C. Ockenden; Martha L. Villamizar; Catherine Wearing; Paul J. A. Withers; Jian G. Zhou; Nicholas J. Barber; Philip M. Haygarth

doi:10.1002/hyp.v32.17

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

Michael J. Hollaway, Keith J. Beven, Clare Mc W. H. Benskin, Adrian L. Collins, Robert Evans, Peter D. Falloon, Kirsty J. Forber, Kevin M. Hiscock, Ron Kahana, Christopher J. A. Macleod, Mary C. Ockenden, Martha L. Villamizar, Catherine Wearing, Paul J. A. Withers, Jian G. Zhou, Nicholas J. Barber, Philip M. Haygarth

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16 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2779-2787
Number of pages	9
Journal	Hydrological Processes
Volume	32
Issue number	17
Early online date	28 Jun 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.v32.17
Publication status	Published - 15 Aug 2018

Keywords

discharge
epistemic and aleatory uncertainty
nutrient load
rating curve
voting point

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10.1002/hyp.v32.17Licence: CC BY

Published manuscript
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Final published version, 796 KBLicence: CC BY

http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/hyp.13217Licence: CC BY

Cite this

Hollaway, M. J., Beven, K. J., Benskin, C. M. W. H., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Falloon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Ockenden, M. C., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J. A., Zhou, J. G., Barber, N. J., & Haygarth, P. M. (2018). A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates. Hydrological Processes, 32(17), 2779-2787. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.v32.17

Hollaway, Michael J. ; Beven, Keith J. ; Benskin, Clare Mc W. H. ; Collins, Adrian L. ; Evans, Robert ; Falloon, Peter D. ; Forber, Kirsty J. ; Hiscock, Kevin M. ; Kahana, Ron ; Macleod, Christopher J. A. ; Ockenden, Mary C. ; Villamizar, Martha L. ; Wearing, Catherine ; Withers, Paul J. A. ; Zhou, Jian G. ; Barber, Nicholas J. ; Haygarth, Philip M. / A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates. In: Hydrological Processes. 2018 ; Vol. 32, No. 17. pp. 2779-2787.

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title = "A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates",

abstract = "River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.",

keywords = "discharge, epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, nutrient load, rating curve, voting point",

author = "Hollaway, {Michael J.} and Beven, {Keith J.} and Benskin, {Clare Mc W. H.} and Collins, {Adrian L.} and Robert Evans and Falloon, {Peter D.} and Forber, {Kirsty J.} and Hiscock, {Kevin M.} and Ron Kahana and Macleod, {Christopher J. A.} and Ockenden, {Mary C.} and Villamizar, {Martha L.} and Catherine Wearing and Withers, {Paul J. A.} and Zhou, {Jian G.} and Barber, {Nicholas J.} and Haygarth, {Philip M.}",

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month = aug,

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doi = "10.1002/hyp.v32.17",

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Hollaway, MJ, Beven, KJ, Benskin, CMWH, Collins, AL, Evans, R, Falloon, PD, Forber, KJ, Hiscock, KM, Kahana, R, Macleod, CJA, Ockenden, MC, Villamizar, ML, Wearing, C, Withers, PJA, Zhou, JG, Barber, NJ & Haygarth, PM 2018, 'A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates', Hydrological Processes, vol. 32, no. 17, pp. 2779-2787. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.v32.17

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates. / Hollaway, Michael J.; Beven, Keith J.; Benskin, Clare Mc W. H.; Collins, Adrian L.; Evans, Robert; Falloon, Peter D.; Forber, Kirsty J.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Kahana, Ron; Macleod, Christopher J. A.; Ockenden, Mary C.; Villamizar, Martha L.; Wearing, Catherine; Withers, Paul J. A.; Zhou, Jian G.; Barber, Nicholas J.; Haygarth, Philip M.

In: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 32, No. 17, 15.08.2018, p. 2779-2787.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

AU - Hollaway, Michael J.

AU - Beven, Keith J.

AU - Benskin, Clare Mc W. H.

AU - Collins, Adrian L.

AU - Evans, Robert

AU - Falloon, Peter D.

AU - Forber, Kirsty J.

AU - Hiscock, Kevin M.

AU - Kahana, Ron

AU - Macleod, Christopher J. A.

AU - Ockenden, Mary C.

AU - Villamizar, Martha L.

AU - Wearing, Catherine

AU - Withers, Paul J. A.

AU - Zhou, Jian G.

AU - Barber, Nicholas J.

AU - Haygarth, Philip M.

PY - 2018/8/15

Y1 - 2018/8/15

N2 - River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.

AB - River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.

KW - discharge

KW - epistemic and aleatory uncertainty

KW - nutrient load

KW - rating curve

KW - voting point

U2 - 10.1002/hyp.v32.17

DO - 10.1002/hyp.v32.17

M3 - Article

VL - 32

SP - 2779

EP - 2787

JO - Hydrological Processes

JF - Hydrological Processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 17

ER -