A methodology for assessing the potential impact of AIDS upon farming systems in Kenya

A method is suggested to predict what impact the AIDS pandemic may have on farming systems in Africa. The steps are as follows: mapping present sero-prevalence, choosing a most likely scenario of future morbidity and mortality, mapping this scenario, overlaying this map on another of farming systems classified according to labour loss through AIDS, mapping the spatial covariance of high vulnerability and high future AIDS prevalence and the addition of non-quantitative variables. Intra-system household variability of the impact of AIDS may also be considered. Poor data and accuracy of demographic AIDS modelling indicates a robust and approximate method of prediction.