Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

Rachel Warren (Lead Author), Rob Wilby, Kathryn Brown, Paul Watkiss, Richard Betts, James Murphy, Jason Lowe

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Abstract

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.
Original languageEnglish
Article number20170295
JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume376
Issue number2121
Early online date30 Apr 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jun 2018

Keywords

  • risk assessment
  • climate change
  • adaptation
  • vulnerability

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