Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

Thomas Jung, Neil D. Gordon, Peter Bauer, David H. Bromwich, Matthieu Chevallier, Jonathan J. Day, Jackie Dawson, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Christopher Fairall, Helge F. Goessling, Marika Holland, Jun Inoue, Trond Iversen, Stefanie Klebe, Peter Lemke, Martin Losch, Alexander Makshtas, Brian Mills, Pertti Nurmi, Donald PerovichPhilip Reid, Ian Renfrew, Gregory Smith, Gunilla Svensson, Mikhail Tolstykh, Qinghua Yang

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Abstract

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined.

The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1631–1647
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume97
Issue number9
Early online date13 Jan 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2016

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