African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Michalis I. Vousdoukas; Joanne Clarke; Roshanka Ranasinghe; Lena Reimann; Nadia Khalaf; Trang Minh Duong; Birgitt Ouweneel; Salma Sabour; Carley E. Iles; Christopher H. Trisos; Luc Feyen; Lorenzo Mentaschi; Nicholas P. Simpson

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Joanne Clarke, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lena Reimann, Nadia Khalaf, Trang Minh Duong, Birgitt Ouweneel, Salma Sabour, Carley E. Iles, Christopher H. Trisos, Luc Feyen, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nicholas P. Simpson

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Abstract

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	256–262
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	12
Issue number	3
Early online date	10 Feb 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
Publication status	Published - Mar 2022

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Cite this

@article{35d1fcb37170459e8a01a43cea065536,

title = "African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates",

abstract = "The African coast contains heritage sites of {\textquoteleft}Outstanding Universal Value{\textquoteright} that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.",

author = "Vousdoukas, {Michalis I.} and Joanne Clarke and Roshanka Ranasinghe and Lena Reimann and Nadia Khalaf and Duong, {Trang Minh} and Birgitt Ouweneel and Salma Sabour and Iles, {Carley E.} and Trisos, {Christopher H.} and Luc Feyen and Lorenzo Mentaschi and Simpson, {Nicholas P.}",

note = "Data availability: The models and datasets presented are part of the integrated risk assessment tool LISCoAsT (Large Scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool) developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The African heritage sites list, as well as the coastal hazard assessment data, are available through the LISCoAsT repository of the Joint Research Centre data collection (http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST) from https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/31e2737e-2059-4f47-b088-16db7a09a555. Heritage sites can be identified by their designated name and number in the data, and the centroid of the site is provided. We do not provide the polygons showing the extent of each site due to data sensitivities, but these can be provided by the corresponding authors on reasonable request for non-commercial use. Code availability: The code that supported the findings of this study is available on reasonable request from the corresponding authors. Acknowledgements: R.R. is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. N.P.S. received financial support from the UK government{\textquoteright}s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (grant no. 109419 – 001). C.H.T. is supported by the FLAIR Fellowship Programme: a partnership between the African Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society funded by the UK government{\textquoteright}s Global Challenges Research Fund. N.K. is supported by the Mapping Africa{\textquoteright}s Endangered Archaeological Sites and Monuments project funded by Arcadia Fund, UK. S.S. is supported by the Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Training Scheme, UK.",

year = "2022",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1",

language = "English",

volume = "12",

pages = "256–262",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "3",

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T1 - African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

AU - Vousdoukas, Michalis I.

AU - Clarke, Joanne

AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka

AU - Reimann, Lena

AU - Khalaf, Nadia

AU - Duong, Trang Minh

AU - Ouweneel, Birgitt

AU - Sabour, Salma

AU - Iles, Carley E.

AU - Trisos, Christopher H.

AU - Feyen, Luc

AU - Mentaschi, Lorenzo

AU - Simpson, Nicholas P.

N1 - Data availability: The models and datasets presented are part of the integrated risk assessment tool LISCoAsT (Large Scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool) developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The African heritage sites list, as well as the coastal hazard assessment data, are available through the LISCoAsT repository of the Joint Research Centre data collection (http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST) from https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/31e2737e-2059-4f47-b088-16db7a09a555. Heritage sites can be identified by their designated name and number in the data, and the centroid of the site is provided. We do not provide the polygons showing the extent of each site due to data sensitivities, but these can be provided by the corresponding authors on reasonable request for non-commercial use. Code availability: The code that supported the findings of this study is available on reasonable request from the corresponding authors. Acknowledgements: R.R. is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. N.P.S. received financial support from the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (grant no. 109419 – 001). C.H.T. is supported by the FLAIR Fellowship Programme: a partnership between the African Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society funded by the UK government’s Global Challenges Research Fund. N.K. is supported by the Mapping Africa’s Endangered Archaeological Sites and Monuments project funded by Arcadia Fund, UK. S.S. is supported by the Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Training Scheme, UK.

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N2 - The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

AB - The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

M3 - Article

VL - 12

SP - 256

EP - 262

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

IS - 3

ER -

African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

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