Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster

Manoochehr Shirzaei; Farshid Vahedifard; Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam; Leonard Ohenhen; Oluwaseyi Dasho; Ashutosh Tiwari; Susanna Werth; Mohammed Azhar; Yunxia Zhao; Robert J. Nicholls; Amir Aghakouchak

doi:10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1

Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster

Manoochehr Shirzaei
, Farshid Vahedifard
, Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam
, Leonard Ohenhen
, Oluwaseyi Dasho
, Ashutosh Tiwari
, Susanna Werth
, Mohammed Azhar
, Yunxia Zhao
, Robert J. Nicholls
, Amir Aghakouchak

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

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Abstract

In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.

Original language	English
Article number	5
Journal	npj Natural Hazards
Volume	2
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1
Publication status	Published - 16 Jan 2025

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

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10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

s44304-024-00056-1Final published version, 3.21 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{69ec0695a7604cbb9e8b0a20d49e4a0f,

title = "Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster",

abstract = "In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016{\textendash}2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged \textasciitilde{}8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic {\textquoteleft}healthcare{\textquoteright} management approach to prevent future catastrophes.",

author = "Manoochehr Shirzaei and Farshid Vahedifard and Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam and Leonard Ohenhen and Oluwaseyi Dasho and Ashutosh Tiwari and Susanna Werth and Mohammed Azhar and Yunxia Zhao and Nicholls, \{Robert J.\} and Amir Aghakouchak",

note = "Data availability statement: No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study. Acknowledgements: A grant from DoD supported this research. The building footprint is provided by Google Research (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/buildings-footprint-floods-derna-libya). European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 SAR images are obtained through Alaska Satellite Facilities at https://asf.alaska.edu/. The InSAR deformation datasets and distortion angles generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.7294/25374619.",

year = "2025",

month = jan,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1",

language = "English",

volume = "2",

journal = "npj Natural Hazards",

issn = "2948-2100",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: Recipe for human disaster

AU - Shirzaei, Manoochehr

AU - Vahedifard, Farshid

AU - Sadhasivam, Nitheshnirmal

AU - Ohenhen, Leonard

AU - Dasho, Oluwaseyi

AU - Tiwari, Ashutosh

AU - Werth, Susanna

AU - Azhar, Mohammed

AU - Zhao, Yunxia

AU - Nicholls, Robert J.

AU - Aghakouchak, Amir

N1 - Data availability statement: No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study. Acknowledgements: A grant from DoD supported this research. The building footprint is provided by Google Research (https://data.humdata.org/dataset/buildings-footprint-floods-derna-libya). European Space Agency, Sentinel-1 SAR images are obtained through Alaska Satellite Facilities at https://asf.alaska.edu/. The InSAR deformation datasets and distortion angles generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.7294/25374619.

PY - 2025/1/16

Y1 - 2025/1/16

N2 - In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.

AB - In Derna, Libya, a record-breaking storm and subsequent dam failures on September 10, 2023, caused over 11,000 deaths. Analyzing satellite data from 2016–2023, we found 1.8 mm/yr of differential settlement in dams contributed to their failure, and flooding damaged ~8570 buildings. We argue that the interplay of aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions drove this disaster, stressing the need for a holistic ‘healthcare’ management approach to prevent future catastrophes.

U2 - 10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1

DO - 10.1038/s44304-024-00056-1

M3 - Comment/debate

SN - 2948-2100

VL - 2

JO - npj Natural Hazards

JF - npj Natural Hazards

IS - 1

M1 - 5

ER -