Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system

Yeong Jae Kim, Charlie Wilson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)
23 Downloads (Pure)


We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)279-299
Number of pages21
JournalEnergy Strategy Reviews
Early online date17 Apr 2019
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2019


  • Econometric analysis
  • Energy technology innovation system
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Scenario analysis

Cite this