Areal interpolation and the UK’s referendum on EU membership

Chris Hanretty

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Abstract

I show how results from the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership of the European Union can be remapped from local authority level to parliamentary constituency level through the use of a scaled Poisson regression model which incorporates demographic information from lower level geographies. I use these estimates to show how the geographic distribution of signatures to a petition for a second referendum was strongly associated with how constituencies voted in the actual referendum.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)466-483
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Volume27
Issue number4
Early online date17 Mar 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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