Assessing the likelihood for transformational change at the Green Climate Fund: An analysis using self-reported project data

Climate finance institutions have been tasked with effectively and efficiently allocating funds to spur the transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient economies. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is expected to assist the most vulnerable adapt to and mitigate climate change because of its mandate to contribute to a paradigm shift. To understand if the GCF's portfolio is on track to achieve this aim, we review the project documents of GCF investments through March 2020 (N = 125 projects). We examine attributes of these investments by applying a framework for potential transformational change, comprised of eight components. We use bivariate statistics and multivariate cluster analysis to examine the GCF's project portfolio of mitigation, cross-cutting and adaptation projects. Bivariate tests find that adaptation projects show the greater intention to integrate policy change into national planning processes and that both adaptation and cross-cutting projects require a greater need for and expectation of behaviour change. Results from cluster analysis shows how adaptation projects dominate clusters with high and medium potential for transformational change (with 47% and 78% of projects, respectively). However, even the high potential cluster only displays the highest average scores for four of the eight components in our framework of transformational change. These findings present learning opportunities for the GCF's future project selection. The GCF should leverage its current resources carefully to attain transformational impacts especially within adaptation where the Fund has a greater market share compared to mitigation projects.