Brazil’s next deforestation frontiers

Public land grabbing, concomitant with hinterland colonization and agrarian reform programs, translocated millions of rural migrants into remote regions of Brazil, most recently to the Amazonian forest domain. Despite state-of-the-art command-and-control and remote sensing monitoring systems in Brazil, effective law enforcement in a country of ∼8.5 million km2 remains a huge challenge, and particularly difficult in times of lenient central-government environmental policies. Cropland and pasture expansion is the most important factor in land use change in Brazil, and the leading driver of primary habitat conversion worldwide. This essay discusses the most likely business-as-usual agricultural frontiers in Northern and Central Brazil to make room for new farmland: the MaToPiBa region in the transitional Cerrado-Caatinga biogeographic zone; the northernmost Cerrado areas of Amapá; and the opening-up of Indigenous Lands to industrial scale agriculture. We discuss the origins, recent developments and implications to conservation of these new agricultural frontiers.