Calculation of changes in life expectancy based on proportional hazards model of an intervention

Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Lisanne Gitsels, Nigel Wright

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)
34 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Mortality projections are of great interest to the pension and insurance industry and with an ageing population, the projections need to cover a longer period. A significant question is how to incorporate in mortality projections the longevity risk due to medical advances and uptake of health interventions. We show how hazard ratios obtained from medical studies in combination with the baseline hazards described by Gompertz or Weibull survival distributions, can be translated into changes in individual and population period life expectancy. The impact of medical advances and health interventions can differ among groups of people, such as by sex, age, and deprivation. Changes in life expectancy depend on the composition of the population and these attributes. These calculations are illustrated by a case study on statins, a drug that can significantly improve life expectancy. An R program implementing our methodology is provided in the Appendix.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-35
Number of pages9
JournalInsurance Mathematics and Economics
Volume93
Early online date20 Apr 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2020

Keywords

  • Gompertz distribution
  • Hazard function
  • Health data
  • Mortality
  • Population health
  • Weibull distribution

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