Causes of East Asian temperature multidecadal variability since 850 CE

The drivers of multidecadal to centennial‐scale variability in East Asian temperature, apparent in temperature reconstructions, are poorly understood. Here, we apply a multivariate regression analysis to distinguish the influences of large‐scale modes of internal variability (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO; and Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation, PMO), and external natural (orbital, solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosols, and land use changes) forcings on East Asian warm‐season temperature over the period 850–1999 AD. We find that ~80% of the temperature change on timescales longer than 30 years can be explained including all drivers over the full‐length period. The PMO was the most important driver of multidecadal temperature variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (here, 950–1250), while solar contribution was important during the Little Ice Age (here, 1350–1850). Since 1850, two‐thirds of temperature change can be explained with anthropogenic forcing, whereas one‐third was related mainly to the AMO and volcanic forcing.