China’s Food Security: Is it a National, Regional or Global Issue?

David Norse, Yuelai Lu, Jikun Huang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)peer-review


The maintenance of high levels of food security (with over 95 per cent self-sufficiency in grains is a policy that was officially introduced in 1996 and has been implemented thereafter) is a political imperative in China, but not a physical or economic issue now nor in the period to 2030 and probably longer. Supply projections by the Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP) and FAO projections suggest that on average China could continue to be self-sufficient for rice and wheat until 2030. Only soya bean and maize imports for livestock feed will continue to rise. Soya bean and maize imports may increase from the current nearly 60 Mt to 100Mt and to 30 Mt per annum respectively by 2030, which will require a major yet feasible expansion in production in its traditional sources (USA, Brazil and Argentina) or new ones. But this will not be an economic issue. Such imports will require a minute fraction (considerably less than 1 per cent) of China’s more than £2 trillion foreign exchange reserves (using an exchange rate of 9.5 yuan to the £ here and elsewhere in the chapter).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationChina and the EU in Context
EditorsKerry Brown
Place of PublicationLondon
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-137-35186-9
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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