Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Jarmo S. Kikstra; Adriano Vinca; Francesco Lovat; Benigna Boza-Kiss; Bas van Ruijven; Charlie Wilson; Joeri Rogelj; Behnam Zakeri; Oliver Fricko; Keywan Riahi

doi:10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8

Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Jarmo S. Kikstra, Adriano Vinca, Francesco Lovat, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Bas van Ruijven, Charlie Wilson, Joeri Rogelj, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

55 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO₂ emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO₂ by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1114–1123
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	6
Issue number	12
Early online date	11 Oct 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8
Publication status	Published - Dec 2021

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10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8

Kikstra_COVID_Manuscript_NatEne_authorproofsAccepted author manuscript, 597 KB

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title = "Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes",

abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.",

author = "Kikstra, {Jarmo S.} and Adriano Vinca and Francesco Lovat and Benigna Boza-Kiss and {van Ruijven}, Bas and Charlie Wilson and Joeri Rogelj and Behnam Zakeri and Oliver Fricko and Keywan Riahi",

note = "Funding Information: This study was funded by European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE) (J.S.K., A.V., B.B.-K., F.L., B.v.R., J.R., B.Z., O.F. and K.R.). This project received funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821124 (NAVIGATE) (F.L., B.v.R., C.W. and K.R.). This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council under grant agreement no. NE/S007 415/1 (J.S.K.). ",

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AU - Wilson, Charlie

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Zakeri, Behnam

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Riahi, Keywan

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Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Abstract

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Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climatTE policy making (NAVIGATE)

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Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Abstract

UN SDGs

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Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climatTE policy making (NAVIGATE)

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