ClimateBench v1.0: A benchmark for data-driven climate projections

Duncan Watson-Parris, Yuhan Rao, Dirk Olivie, Øyvind Seland, Peer Nowack, Gustau Camps-Valls, Philip Stier, Shahine Bouabid, Maura Dewey, Emilie Fons, Jessenia Gonzalez, Paula Harder, Kai Jeggle, Julien Lenhardt, Peter Manshausen, Maria Novitasari, Lucile Ricard, Carla Roesch

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Abstract

Many different emission pathways exist that are compatible with the Paris climate agreement, and many more are possible that miss that target. While some of the most complex Earth System Models have simulated a small selection of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, it is impractical to use these expensive models to fully explore the space of possibilities. Such explorations therefore mostly rely on one-dimensional impulse response models, or simple pattern scaling approaches to approximate the physical climate response to a given scenario. Here we present ClimateBench—the first benchmarking framework based on a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, AerChemMIP and Detection-Attribution Model Intercomparison Project simulations performed by a full complexity Earth System Model, and a set of baseline machine learning models that emulate its response to a variety of forcers. These emulators can predict annual mean global distributions of temperature, diurnal temperature range and precipitation (including extreme precipitation) given a wide range of emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and aerosols, allowing them to efficiently probe previously unexplored scenarios. We discuss the accuracy and interpretability of these emulators and consider their robustness to physical constraints such as total energy conservation. Future opportunities incorporating such physical constraints directly in the machine learning models and using the emulators for detection and attribution studies are also discussed. This opens a wide range of opportunities to improve prediction, robustness and mathematical tractability. We hope that by laying out the principles of climate model emulation with clear examples and metrics we encourage engagement from statisticians and machine learning specialists keen to tackle this important and demanding challenge.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2021MS002954
JournalJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Volume14
Issue number10
Early online date15 Sep 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022

Keywords

  • climate
  • emulation
  • machine learning
  • precipitation

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