Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Chris Hanretty; Ben Lauderdale; Nick Vivyan

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019

Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Chris Hanretty, Ben Lauderdale, Nick Vivyan

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Abstract

We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	239-243
Number of pages	5
Journal	Electoral Studies
Volume	41
Early online date	15 Dec 2015
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
Publication status	Published - Mar 2016

Keywords

national polling
constituency polling
uniform swing
generalized normal swing

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10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019

electoral-studies-BLAccepted author manuscript, 94.5 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

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title = "Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting",

abstract = "We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.",

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author = "Chris Hanretty and Ben Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan",

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language = "English",

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AU - Lauderdale, Ben

AU - Vivyan, Nick

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KW - constituency polling

KW - uniform swing

KW - generalized normal swing

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DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019

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VL - 41

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EP - 243

JO - Electoral Studies

JF - Electoral Studies

SN - 0261-3794

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