Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Chris Hanretty, Ben Lauderdale, Nick Vivyan

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We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)239-243
Number of pages5
JournalElectoral Studies
Early online date15 Dec 2015
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2016


  • national polling
  • constituency polling
  • uniform swing
  • generalized normal swing

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