Coronary calcium measurement improves prediction of cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with type 2 diabetes: the PREDICT study

Robert S. Elkeles, Ian F. Godsland, Michael D. Feher, Michael B. Rubens, Michael Roughton, Fiona Nugara, Steve E. Humphries, William Richmond, Marcus D. Flather, PREDICT Study Group

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

218 Citations (Scopus)


Aims The PREDICT Study is a prospective cohort study designed to evaluate coronary artery calcification score (CACS) as a predictor of cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Methods and results A total of 589 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease and with established T2DM had CACS measured, as well as risk factors, including plasma lipoprotein, apolipoprotein, homocysteine and C-reactive protein concentrations, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and urine albumin creatinine ratio. Participants were followed for a median of 4 years and first coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events were identified as primary endpoints. There were 66 first cardiovascular events (including 10 strokes). CACS was a highly significant, independent predictor of events (P < 0.001), with a doubling in CACS being associated with a 32% increase in risk of events (29% after adjustment). Hazard ratios relative to CACS in the range 0-10 Agatston units (AU) were: CACS 11-100 AU, 5.4 (P = 0.02); 101-400 AU 10.5 (P = 0.001); 401-1000 AU, 11.9 (P = 0.001), and > 1000 AU, 19.8 (P < 0.001). Only HOMA-IR predicted primary endpoints independently of CACS (P = 0.01). The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve for United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine primary endpoint risk and for UKPDS risk plus CACS were 0.63 and 0.73, respectively (P = 0.03). Conclusion Measurement of CACS is a powerful predictor of cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with T2DM and can further enhance prediction provided by established risk models.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2244-2251
Number of pages8
JournalEuropean Heart Journal
Issue number18
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Cite this