Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Daniel T. Skinner; Adrian J. Matthews; David P. Stevens

doi:10.1029/2023GL104576

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Daniel T. Skinner, Adrian J. Matthews, David P. Stevens

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Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023GL104576
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	50
Issue number	17
Early online date	30 Aug 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104576
Publication status	Published - 16 Sept 2023

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10.1029/2023GL104576Licence: CC BY

Skinner_etal_2023_GeophysicalResearchLettersFinal published version, 6.3 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{6368fab376b64683acd35d99c57e096d,

title = "Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation",

abstract = "The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.",

author = "Skinner, {Daniel T.} and Matthews, {Adrian J.} and Stevens, {David P.}",

note = "Research Funding: Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/R016704/1 Data Availability Statement: All data used in the preparation of this manuscript are publicly available. ERA5 wind, geopotential and temperature data were provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023a, 2023b; Hersbach et al., 2020). HadISST SST data were provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre (Rayner et al., 2003; UK Met Office, 2022). The MJO index was accessed from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2021) and Nino 3.4 index from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratories (2022). The AMV index data were provided by the Climate Analysis Section, NCAR (Trenberth & Shea, 2006). The PDO index data were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA (Mantua, 1999, 2023). The NAO index data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratories (2023). CMAP precipitation data (Xie & Arkin, 1997) were provided by the NOAA PSL.",

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doi = "10.1029/2023GL104576",

language = "English",

volume = "50",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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N1 - Research Funding: Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/R016704/1 Data Availability Statement: All data used in the preparation of this manuscript are publicly available. ERA5 wind, geopotential and temperature data were provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023a, 2023b; Hersbach et al., 2020). HadISST SST data were provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre (Rayner et al., 2003; UK Met Office, 2022). The MJO index was accessed from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2021) and Nino 3.4 index from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratories (2022). The AMV index data were provided by the Climate Analysis Section, NCAR (Trenberth & Shea, 2006). The PDO index data were provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA (Mantua, 1999, 2023). The NAO index data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratories (2023). CMAP precipitation data (Xie & Arkin, 1997) were provided by the NOAA PSL.

PY - 2023/9/16

Y1 - 2023/9/16

N2 - The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

AB - The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

UR - https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.168500319.97082684/v1

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DO - 10.1029/2023GL104576

M3 - Article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 50

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 17

M1 - e2023GL104576

ER -

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

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TerraMaris: The Maritime Continent - Driver of the Global Climate System

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Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

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