Abstract
Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, and demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 455-474 |
Number of pages | 20 |
Journal | Climate Policy |
Volume | 21 |
Issue number | 4 |
Early online date | 24 Oct 2020 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2021 |
Keywords
- Low-carbon transport
- demand reduction
- emission reduction
- emission scenarios
- integrated assessment model
- low-carbon industry
Profiles
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Corinne Le Quéré, CBE FRS
- School of Environmental Sciences - Professor of Climate Change Science
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - Member
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences - Member
- ClimateUEA - Member
Person: Research Group Member, Academic, Teaching & Research
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Nem Vaughan
- School of Environmental Sciences - Associate Professor in Climate Change
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - Member
- Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences - Member
- ClimateUEA - Member
Person: Member, Research Group Member, Academic, Teaching & Research
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Charlie Wilson
- School of Environmental Sciences - Honorary Professor, Professor in Energy and Climate Change
- Environmental Social Sciences - Member
Person: Honorary, Research Group Member, Academic, Teaching & Research
Press/Media
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COVID-19 disruption is our chance to reduce flying for good. How?
Maria Sharmina, Alice Larkin & Nem Vaughan
9/03/21
1 Media contribution
Press/Media: Media Coverage or Contribution