Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Rolf A Groeneveld, Francesco Bosello, Momme Butenschön, Mike Elliott, Myron A Peck, John K Pinnegar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)


Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)164-171
Number of pages8
JournalEstuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
Early online date20 Oct 2015
Publication statusPublished - 5 Feb 2018


  • Climatic changes
  • Socioeconomic aspects
  • International policy
  • Ecosystem management
  • Scenarios

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