Dynamic hazards modelling for predictive longevity risk assessment

Elena Kulinskaya, Lisanne Andra Gitsels, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nigel R. Wright

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Abstract

Predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on geodemographic postcode-based consumer classification are widely used in the pension and life insurance industry. However, these are static socio-economic models not directly related to health information. Health information is increasingly used for annuity underwriting in the UK, using health status when the annuity is purchased. In real life, people develop new health conditions and lifestyle habits and can start and stop a certain treatment regime at any time. This requires the ability to dynamically classify clients into time-varying risk profiles based on the presence of evolving health-related conditions, treatments and outcomes. We incorporate landmark analysis of electronic health records (EHR), in combination with the baseline hazards described by Gompertz survival distributions, for dynamic prediction of survival probabilities and life expectancy. We discuss a case-study based on landmark analysis of the survival experience of a cohort of 110,243 healthy participants who reached age 60 between 1990–2000.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)222-231
Number of pages10
JournalInsurance Mathematics and Economics
Volume96
Early online date21 Nov 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021

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