Economic fluctuations during pregnancy and smoking onset among adolescents in Brazil: Evidence from the 2012 National Survey of School Health

In this paper, we aim to investigate the potential relationship between smoking onset among nine-grade Brazilian students and economic fluctuations during their life in utero. Using data about smoking behavior from the 2012 National Survey of School Health and the unemployment rate as a proxy for economic fluctuations, we estimate an interval censoring model for the risk of early smoking onset in adolescence. The results suggest that students who experienced economic downturn during the third trimester of pregnancy are less likely to have the first experience of smoking earlier in adolescence than their counterparts. This association is basically driven by students of low-SES mothers who are less prevalent in the sample and potentially more susceptible to have their fertility decision influenced by economic cycles.