Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: the case of carbon constrained China

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Abstract

China’s energy sector is under pressure to achieve secure and affordable supply and a clear decarbonisation path. We examine the longitudinal trajectory of the Chinese electricity supply security and model the near future supply security based on the 12th 5 year plan. Our deterministic approach combines Shannon-Wiener, Herfindahl-Hirschman and electricity import dependence indices for supply security appraisal. We find that electricity portfolio innovation allows China to provide secure energy supply despite increasing import dependence. It is argued that long-term aggressive deployment of renewable energy will unblock China’s coal-biased technological lock-in and increase supply security in all fronts. However, reduced supply diversity in China during the 1990s will not recover until after 2020s due to the long-term coal lock-in that can threaten to hold China’s back from realising its full potential.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)267-276
Number of pages10
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume100
Early online date27 Jul 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2015

Keywords

  • Energy security
  • China
  • Electricity sector
  • climate change policy
  • diversification

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