Emerging product-process archetypes in oncology: informing the sustainable provision of next-generation medicines

The emergence of more targeted molecular therapies has contributed to accelerated growth within the oncology market. Projected to become the leading therapeutic area by 2017, forecast spends are expected to be in the range of $74-84 billion. Coupled with its many specificities around pricing, insurance implications, and ethics, we argue that the oncology segment may best inform future pharmaceutical value network design characteristics - in supporting the sustainable manufacture and supply of next-generation medicines. Through exploration of future state scenarios and opportunities areas, driven by the adoption of emerging process and digital technologies, a base framework is extended to enable a systematic assessment of a series of candidates representative of the wider oncology market. These include niche, low volume drugs on-patent with high QALYs (quality-adjusted life years), through to higher volume generics with a history of supply shortages. A series of emerging product-process ‘archetypes’ in oncology are proposed – classified as ‘New Niche’, ‘Old Niche’ and ‘Established Generics’ – with associated models for reconfiguration, based on the clustering of potential supply benefits. A key application of this systems approach is the potential of informing economies of drug ‘repurposing’, through its extension from commercial to drug discovery, development and clinical trial contexts, and in matching emerging process capabilities to future adaptive supply requirements – for the sustainable provision of next-generation medicines.