Endemism increases species' climate change risk in areas of global biodiversity importance

Stella Manes (Lead Author), Mark J. Costello, Heath Beckett, Anindita Debnath, Eleanor Devenish-Nelson, Kerry-Anne Grey, Rhosanna Jenkins, Tasnuva Ming Khan, Wolfgang Kiessling, Cristina Krause, Shobha S. Maharaj, Guy F. Midgley, Jeff Price, Gautam Talukdar, Mariana M. Vale

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

107 Citations (Scopus)
9 Downloads (Pure)


Climate change affects life at global scales and across systems but is of special concern in areas that are disproportionately rich in biological diversity and uniqueness. Using a meta-analytical approach, we analysed >8000 risk projections of the projected impact of climate change on 273 areas of exceptional biodiversity, including terrestrial and marine environments. We found that climate change is projected to negatively impact all assessed areas, but endemic species are consistently more adversely impacted. Terrestrial endemics are projected to be 2.7 and 10 times more impacted than non-endemic natives and introduced species respectively, the latter being overall unaffected by climate change. We defined a high risk of extinction as a loss of >80% due to climate change alone. Of endemic species, 34% and 46% in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and 100% and 84% of island and mountain species were projected to face high extinction risk respectively. A doubling of warming is projected to disproportionately increase extinction risks for endemic and non-endemic native species. Thus, reducing extinction risks requires both adaptation responses in biodiversity rich-spots and enhanced climate change mitigation.
Original languageEnglish
Article number109070
JournalBiological Conservation
Early online date9 Apr 2021
Publication statusPublished - May 2021


  • Biodiversity hotspots
  • Extinction risk
  • Global-200 ecoregions
  • Introduced species

Cite this