Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study

Yi He; Fredrik Wetterhall; Hongjun Bao; Hannah Cloke; Zhijia Li; Florian Pappenberger; Yuzhong Hu; Desmond Manful; Yingchun Huang

doi:10.1002/asl.270

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study

Yi He, Fredrik Wetterhall, Hongjun Bao, Hannah Cloke, Zhijia Li, Florian Pappenberger, Yuzhong Hu, Desmond Manful, Yingchun Huang

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

55 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	132-138
Number of pages	7
Journal	Atmospheric Science Letters
Volume	11
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.270
Publication status	Published - 2010

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10.1002/asl.270

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins
Ye, J., He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, HL., Manful, D. Y. & Li, Z., Jul 2014, In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 140, 682, p. 1615-1628 14 p.
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title = "Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study",

abstract = "We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.",

author = "Yi He and Fredrik Wetterhall and Hongjun Bao and Hannah Cloke and Zhijia Li and Florian Pappenberger and Yuzhong Hu and Desmond Manful and Yingchun Huang",

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T1 - Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study

AU - He, Yi

AU - Wetterhall, Fredrik

AU - Bao, Hongjun

AU - Cloke, Hannah

AU - Li, Zhijia

AU - Pappenberger, Florian

AU - Hu, Yuzhong

AU - Manful, Desmond

AU - Huang, Yingchun

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

AB - We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

U2 - 10.1002/asl.270

DO - 10.1002/asl.270

M3 - Article

VL - 11

SP - 132

EP - 138

JO - Atmospheric Science Letters

JF - Atmospheric Science Letters

IS - 2

ER -

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study

Abstract

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Research output

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Cite this