Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

Beata Latos, Thierry Lefort, Maria K. Flatau, Piotr J. Flatau, Donaldi S. Permana, Dariusz B. Baranowski, Jaka A. I. Paski, Erwin Makmur, Eko Sulystyo, Philippe Peyrillé, Zhe Feng, Adrian J. Matthews, Jerome M. Schmidt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia.Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWspropagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1381-1401
Number of pages21
JournalMonthly Weather Review
Volume149
Issue number5
Early online date1 Mar 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2021

Keywords

  • Extreme events
  • Flood events
  • Kelvin waves
  • Madden-Julian oscillation
  • Maritime Continent
  • Precipitation

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