Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines

J. James Reade, Carl Singleton, Alasdair Brown

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)261-285
Number of pages25
JournalScottish Journal of Political Economy
Volume68
Issue number2
Early online date24 Oct 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2021

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