Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India

Sourav Samanta; Sugata Hazra; Jon R.  French; Robert J. Nicholls; Partho P. Mondal

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624

Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India

Sourav Samanta, Sugata Hazra, Jon R. French, Robert J. Nicholls, Partho P. Mondal

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.

Original language	English
Article number	166624
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	903
Early online date	27 Aug 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624
Publication status	Published - 10 Dec 2023

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624

Revised Manuscript STOTEN-D-23-14581_cleanAccepted author manuscript, 8.59 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

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title = "Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India",

abstract = "In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.",

author = "Sourav Samanta and Sugata Hazra and French, {Jon R.} and Nicholls, {Robert J.} and Mondal, {Partho P.}",

note = "Funding information: This research was funded under the “Towards a Sustainable Earth: Environment-human systems and the UN Global Goals” (TaSE) program in the project “Opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs for food, welfare and the environment in deltas”. Funding was provided by NERC Grant NE/S012478/1, Formas Grant 2019-00045, and the UKIERI-DBT (Grant BT/IN/TaSE/70/SH/2018-19) under UK-India Education Research Initiative. RN has been supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 101037097 (REST-COAST project).",

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T1 - Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India

AU - Samanta, Sourav

AU - Hazra, Sugata

AU - French, Jon R.

AU - Nicholls, Robert J.

AU - Mondal, Partho P.

N1 - Funding information: This research was funded under the “Towards a Sustainable Earth: Environment-human systems and the UN Global Goals” (TaSE) program in the project “Opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs for food, welfare and the environment in deltas”. Funding was provided by NERC Grant NE/S012478/1, Formas Grant 2019-00045, and the UKIERI-DBT (Grant BT/IN/TaSE/70/SH/2018-19) under UK-India Education Research Initiative. RN has been supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 101037097 (REST-COAST project).

PY - 2023/12/10

Y1 - 2023/12/10

N2 - In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.

AB - In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.

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