Future Changes in Indicators of Climate Hazard and Resource in the UK

Nigel Arnell, Stephen Dorling, Hayley Fowler, Helen Hanlon, Katie Jenkins, Alan Kennedy-Asser

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

• The UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR) funded several projects that have calculated how climate change is likely to affect climate hazards and resources across the UK, using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). • Under a high emissions scenario, heatwaves and high tempera-ture extremes become more frequent across the UK, leading to an increase in human mortality, animal heat stress, potato blight, wild-fire danger and damage to road and rail infrastructure. Cold weather extremes continue to occur but become less frequent. • Also under high emissions, the growing season starts earlier, lasts longer and is warmer; this is particularly beneficial for grass-land and viticulture, but the chance of summer drought and dry soils increases. The precise effects vary across different agricultural systems. • With respect to rainfall, high hourly and daily totals become more frequent, leading to a greater chance of flash flooding. River floods become more frequent in the north and west of the UK, but low river flows and droughts also become more frequent, and water quality in upland water sources declines. The actual size of the change in risk is uncertain, primarily due to uncertainty in exactly how rainfall will change. • There are large differences in change in risk across the UK. However, the actual size of the change in risk is uncertain, primarily due to uncertainty in exactly how rainfall will change.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationQuantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK
EditorsSuraje Dessai, Kate Lonsdale, Jason Lowe, Rachel Harcourt
PublisherSpringer
Pages145-161
Number of pages17
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-031-39729-5
ISBN (Print)978-3-031-39728-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Dec 2023

Keywords

  • Climate hazards
  • Climate resources
  • Climate risk
  • UKCP18

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