Future climate of the Gulf/Caribbean Basin from atmospheric general circulation models

Changes in global climate over the past 100 years are reviewed as a backdrop to an assessment of future climatic change under greenhouse-gas forcing. For the Gulf/Caribbean basin, the only GCM result that one can place confidence in is a general warming. There is some evidence of decreased winter/spring precipitation in the northern part of the basin and increased winter/spring precipitation in the southern part. In summer and autumn the models show no consistent patterns of change. Based on the observed statistical link between hurricane frequency and sea-surface temperatures, it is possible that the mean number of hurricanes per year may increase. -from Authors