Future deforestation drivers in an Amazonian ranching frontier

In the Brazilian Amazonia, extensive and durable deforestation is led by ranching profits and increased demand for meat in large, globalized markets. A closer look at the arc of deforestation in southern Amazonia shows deforestation moving northward from ranching hotspots into surrounding frontiers as roads are opened. In the case of the Alta Floresta frontier, however, the road network has become dense enough that topographic features (land flatness and land away from river flooding plains) are now the significant risk factors of forest loss. Conversely, riparian corridors seem to be avoided by deforestation, as water and shade are vital for cattle weight gain or the corridors are waterlogged. Local interactions, expressed as spatial autocorrelation in multivariate models or neighbors in cellular automata forecasts, are also significant. In the short run, these local interactions produce a pattern of irreversible edge deforestation around pastures and fragmentation. But in the long run, spillovers outside of the study area can be expected as a result of economic momentum and the exhaustion of cattle-suitable areas in Alta Floresta.