Global Carbon Budget 2023

Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia BarberoNicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. Mcguire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik Van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, Bo Zheng

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Abstract

Global fossil CO2 emissions (including cement carbonation) are expected to further increase in 2023, to 1.4 % above their pre-COVID-19 pandemic 2019 level. The 2022 emission increase was 0.09 Gt C yr−1 (0.33 Gt CO2 yr−1) relative to 2021, bringing 2022 fossil CO2 emissions to 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (36.4±1.8 Gt CO2 yr−1), virtually equal to the emission level of 2019. Preliminary estimates based on data available suggest fossil CO2 emissions will increase further in 2023, by 1.1 % relative to 2022 (0.0 % to 2.1 %), bringing emissions to 10.0 Gt C yr−1 (36.8 Gt CO2 yr−1), 1.4 % above the 2019 level.

Emissions from coal, oil, and gas in 2023 are all expected to be slightly above their 2022 levels (by 1.1 %, 1.5 %, and 0.5 %, respectively). Regionally, fossil emissions in 2023 are expected to decrease by 7.4 % in the European Union (0.7 Gt C, 2.6 Gt CO2) and by 3.0 % in the United States (1.3 Gt C, 4.9 Gt CO2), but they are expected to increase by 4.0 % in China (3.2 Gt C, 11.9 Gt CO2), 8.2 % in India (0.8 Gt C, 3.1 Gt CO2), and −0.4 % for the rest of the world (3.8 Gt C, 14.0 Gt CO2). International aviation and shipping (IAS) are expected to increase by 11.9 % (0.3 Gt C, 1.2 Gt CO2).

Fossil CO2 emissions decreased in 18 countries during the decade 2013–2022. Altogether, these 18 countries have contributed about 1.9 Gt C yr−1 (7.1 Gt CO2) to fossil fuel CO2 emissions over the last decade, representing about 20 % of world CO2 fossil emissions.

Global CO2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) averaged 1.3±0.7 Gt C yr−1 (4.7±2.6 Gt CO2 yr−1) for the 2013–2022 period with a preliminary projection for 2023 of 1.1±0.7 Gt C yr−1 (4.0±2.6 Gt CO2 yr−1). A small decrease over the past 2 decades is not robust given the large model uncertainty. Emissions from deforestation, the main driver of global gross sources, remain high at around 1.9 Gt C yr−1 over the 2013–2022 period, highlighting the strong potential of halting deforestation for emissions reductions. Sequestration of 1.3 Gt C yr−1 through re-/afforestation and forestry offsets two-thirds of the deforestation emissions. Emissions from other land-use transitions and from peat drainage and peat fire add further smaller contributions. The highest emitters during 2013–2022 in descending order were Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with these three countries contributing more than half of global land-use CO2 emissions.

Total anthropogenic emissions were 11.1 Gt C yr−1 (40.7 Gt CO2 yr−1) in 2022, with a similar preliminary estimate of 11.1 Gt C yr−1 (40.9 Gt CO2 yr−1) for 2023.

The remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2 ∘C has reduced to 75 Gt C (275 Gt CO2), 175 Gt C (625 Gt CO2), and 315 Gt C (1150 Gt CO2), respectively, from the beginning of 2024, equivalent to around 7, 15, and 28 years, assuming 2023 emission levels.

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 419.3 parts per million (ppm) in 2023, 51 % above pre-industrial levels. The atmospheric CO2 growth was 5.2±0.02 Gt C yr−1 during the decade 2013–2022 (47 % of total CO2 emissions) with a preliminary 2023 growth rate estimate of around 5.1 Gt C (2.4 ppm).

The ocean CO2 sink resumed a more rapid growth in the past 2 decades after low or no growth during the 1991–2002 period, overlaid with imprints of climate variability. The estimates based on fCO2 products and models diverge with the growth of the ocean CO2 sink in the past decade being larger by a factor of 2.5 compared to in the models. This discrepancy in the trend originates from all latitudes but is largest in the Southern Ocean. The ocean CO2 sink was 2.9±0.4 Gt C yr−1 during the decade 2013–2022 (26 % of total CO2 emissions) and did not grow after 2019 due to a triple La Niña event. A similar value of 2.9 Gt C yr−1 is preliminarily estimated for 2023, which marks an increase in the sink compared to the last 2 years due to the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions in 2023.

The land CO2 sink continued to increase during the 2013–2022 period primarily in response to increased atmospheric CO2, albeit with large interannual variability. The land CO2 sink was 3.3±0.8 Gt C yr−1 during the 2013–2022 decade (31 % of total CO2 emissions), 0.4 Gt C yr−1 larger than during the previous decade (2000–2009), with a preliminary 2023 estimate of around 2.9 Gt C yr−1, significantly lower than in 2022, and this is attributed to the response of the land biosphere to the emerging El Niño in 2023. Year-to-year variability in the land sink is about 1 Gt C yr−1 and dominates the year-to-year changes in the global atmospheric CO2 concentration, implying that small annual changes in anthropogenic emissions (such as the fossil fuel emission decrease in 2020) are hard to detect in the atmospheric CO2 observations.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5301-5369
JournalEarth System Science Data
Volume15
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Dec 2023

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