Global carbon dioxide emissions scenarios for aviation derived from IPCC storylines: A meta-analysis

Sveinn Vidar Gudmundsson, Annela Anger-Kraavi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)


This research summarises the aviation CO2 emissions studies that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92 and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios storylines as GDP growth assumptions to estimate future global carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector. The inter-quartile mean and the first and third quartiles are calculated to enable researches studying climate change policies for aviation to use an average global baseline scenario with lower and upper boundaries. We also perform a simple meta-analysis to analyse the assumptions used to derive the baseline scenario and conclude, as expected, that change in revenue-tonne-kilometres and fuel-efficiency are the main drivers behind the baseline scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)61-65
Number of pages4
JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2012

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