How transit countries become refugee destinations: Insights from Central and Eastern Europe

This study examines how refugees' destination preferences evolve during transit, focusing on three Central and Eastern European countries—Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary—traditionally regarded as ‘transit only’ prior to the Ukraine refugee crisis. Using a mixed-methods approach, we first analyse 2252 observations from the International Organisation for Migration's Flow Monitoring Surveys to identify the main factors influencing changes in destination choices. We then complement these findings with qualitative data from focus groups with 16 asylum seekers in Romania to explore these dynamics in depth. Our results show that prioritising safety significantly increases the likelihood of asylum seekers reconsidering a transit country as a potential destination. Other influential factors include asylum conditions, migration costs, and educational background, with more educated individuals more likely to revise initial plans. Although our primary focus is on asylum seekers, we find that high migration costs also affect decisions, suggesting a need to ‘recover’ investments through settlement in more stable or economically attractive countries. The qualitative findings support the quantitative results, highlighting the role of legal stability, social networks, and perceived opportunity in shifting preferences. Overall, the study suggests that under certain conditions, transit countries can become viable destinations and supports the application of bounded rationality and human capital theory in understanding refugee decision-making.