Identifying causes and consequences of ecosystem decline in the Irish Sea through bow-tie analysis

In this study, we apply the bow-tie risk analysis framework to map the causes and consequences of decline or loss of five key Irish Sea ecosystem components: intertidal sandflats and mudflats, burrowing fauna including Dublin Bay prawn Nephrops norvegicus, blue mussel Mytilus edulis, commercially harvested fish and wintering waterbirds. Main activities exerting multiple pressures on the Irish Sea ecosystem include energy production from offshore wind farms, tourism and leisure, fishing, transport, agriculture, urban and industrial uses and waste treatment and disposal. All of them can contribute to decline in condition or loss of critical habitats and biota, leading to significant ecological, economic and sociocultural consequences. Understanding these consequences is essential for designing appropriate management responses. The bow-tie approach allows management risks to be identified and highlights the most impactful control points for intervention to prevent or mitigate adverse biodiversity events.