Joint meta-analysis of two diagnostic tests accounting for within and between studies dependence

There is an extensive literature on methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy, but it mainly focuses on a single test. A multinomial generalised linear mixed model was recently proposed for the joint meta-analysis of studies comparing two tests on the same participants in a paired tests design with a gold standard. In this setting, we propose a novel model for joint meta-analysis of studies comparing two diagnostic tests which assumes independent multinomial distributions for the counts of each combination of test results in diseased and non-diseased patients, conditional on the latent vector of probabilities of each combination of test results in diseased and non-diseased patients. For the random effects distribution of the latent proportions, we employ a one-truncated D-vine copula that can provide tail dependence or asymmetry. The proposed model includes the multinomial generalised linear mixed model as a special case, accounts for the within-study dependence induced because the tests are applied to the same participants, allows for between-studies dependence, and can also operate on the original scale of the latent proportions. The latter enables the derivation of summary receiver operating characteristic curves. Our methodology is demonstrated with simulation studies and a meta-analysis of screening for Down’s syndrome with two tests: shortened humerus and shortened femur.