Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

M. C. Ockenden; M. J. Hollaway; K. J. Bevan; A. L. Collins; R. Evans; P. D. Falloon; K. J. Forber; K. M. Hiscock; R. Kahana; C. J. A. Macleod; W. Tych; M. L. Villamizar; C. Wearing; P. J. A. Withers; J. G. Zhou; P. A. Barker; S. Burke; J. E. Freer; P. J. Johnes; M. A. Snell; B. W. J. Surridge; P. M. Haygarth

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

M. C. Ockenden (Lead Author), M. J. Hollaway, K. J. Bevan, A. L. Collins, R. Evans, P. D. Falloon, K. J. Forber, K. M. Hiscock, R. Kahana, C. J. A. Macleod, W. Tych, M. L. Villamizar, C. Wearing, P. J. A. Withers, J. G. Zhou, P. A. Barker, S. Burke, J. E. Freer, P. J. Johnes, M. A. SnellB. W. J. Surridge, P. M. Haygarth

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Abstract

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

Original language	English
Article number	161
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0
Publication status	Published - 31 Jul 2017

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Kevin Hiscock
- K.Hiscockuea.acuk
- School of Environmental Sciences - Professor of Environmental Sciences
- Water Security Research Centre - Member
- Geosciences - Member
- ClimateUEA - Member
Person: Member, Research Group Member, Research Centre Member, Academic, Teaching & Research

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Ockenden, M. C., Hollaway, M. J., Bevan, K. J., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Falloon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Tych, W., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J. A., Zhou, J. G., Barker, P. A., Burke, S., Freer, J. E., Johnes, P. J., ... Haygarth, P. M. (2017). Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. Nature Communications, 8, [161]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

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abstract = "Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).",

author = "Ockenden, {M. C.} and Hollaway, {M. J.} and Bevan, {K. J.} and Collins, {A. L.} and R. Evans and Falloon, {P. D.} and Forber, {K. J.} and Hiscock, {K. M.} and R. Kahana and Macleod, {C. J. A.} and W. Tych and Villamizar, {M. L.} and C. Wearing and Withers, {P. J. A.} and Zhou, {J. G.} and Barker, {P. A.} and S. Burke and Freer, {J. E.} and Johnes, {P. J.} and Snell, {M. A.} and Surridge, {B. W. J.} and Haygarth, {P. M.}",

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Ockenden, MC, Hollaway, MJ, Bevan, KJ, Collins, AL, Evans, R, Falloon, PD, Forber, KJ, Hiscock, KM, Kahana, R, Macleod, CJA, Tych, W, Villamizar, ML, Wearing, C, Withers, PJA, Zhou, JG, Barker, PA, Burke, S, Freer, JE, Johnes, PJ, Snell, MA, Surridge, BWJ & Haygarth, PM 2017, 'Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change', Nature Communications, vol. 8, 161. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0

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AU - Ockenden, M. C.

AU - Hollaway, M. J.

AU - Bevan, K. J.

AU - Collins, A. L.

AU - Evans, R.

AU - Falloon, P. D.

AU - Forber, K. J.

AU - Hiscock, K. M.

AU - Kahana, R.

AU - Macleod, C. J. A.

AU - Tych, W.

AU - Villamizar, M. L.

AU - Wearing, C.

AU - Withers, P. J. A.

AU - Zhou, J. G.

AU - Barker, P. A.

AU - Burke, S.

AU - Freer, J. E.

AU - Johnes, P. J.

AU - Snell, M. A.

AU - Surridge, B. W. J.

AU - Haygarth, P. M.

PY - 2017/7/31

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N2 - Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

AB - Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

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VL - 8

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

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ER -

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Abstract

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