More realistic plankton simulation models will improve projections of ocean ecosystem responses to global change

Plankton models form the core of marine ecosystem simulators used from regional resource and ecosystem management through to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections. In this Perspective, we suggest that extant models, and our confidence in their outputs, will benefit from stronger alignment with empirical knowledge about plankton. Such refinements will enhance understanding of biodiversity, ecophysiology, trophic dynamics and biogeochemistry. We recommend key steps to resolve the disconnect between empirical research and simulation models describing plankton ecology, with an aim to increase the utility of such models for applied uses. A central challenge is characterizing the complexity of plankton diversity and activity in ways that are amenable for model incorporation. We advocate that experts in empirical science are best placed to advise the development of next generation models to address these challenges and we propose a series of steps to achieve that engagement, including their involvement in the design and exploitation of plankton digital twins. We also recommend that plankton science would benefit from integrating simulation modelling as a core tool supporting empirical studies and education, akin to the integration of molecular biological approaches which benefited from concerted actions supported by directed funding.