Multivariate methods for the detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change

This investigation considers whether observed changes in surface air temperature are consistent with GCM equilibrium response predictions for a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. The model considered is a version of the Oregon State University (OSU) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Two possible explanations for the low degree of correspondence between observed and simulated patterns of temperature change are considered. The first is that the observed temperature signal is still too small to be detected against the background noise of natural variability. The second explanation is that the model signal may be erroneous due to model deficiencies and/or inherent differences in equilibrium and transient patterns of temperature change. -from Authors