Occam's Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns (Digest Summary): J.C. Bogle & M.W. Nolan, Jr., Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 42, No. 1 (Fall 2015), 119-134

Research output: Contribution to specialist publicationBook/Film/Article review


In a series of articles in the early 1990s, John Bogle presented two methods for forecasting long-run stock and bond returns. Two decades’ worth of out-of-sample data validates the virtues of the simplicity and the forward-looking nature of the original models. The low prospective returns on mixed stock/bond portfolios are likely to refocus investors’ attention on the costs of mutual fund investments.
Original languageEnglish
Specialist publicationCFA Digest
PublisherCFA Institute
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2016

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