Occam's Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns (Digest Summary): J.C. Bogle & M.W. Nolan, Jr., Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 42, No. 1 (Fall 2015), 119-134

In a series of articles in the early 1990s, John Bogle presented two methods for forecasting long-run stock and bond returns. Two decades’ worth of out-of-sample data validates the virtues of the simplicity and the forward-looking nature of the original models. The low prospective returns on mixed stock/bond portfolios are likely to refocus investors’ attention on the costs of mutual fund investments.