Persistent humid climate favored the Qin and Western Han Dynasties in China around 2,200 y ago

Chun Qin, Bao Yang, Achim Bräuning, Fredrik Charpentier ljungqvist, Timothy J. Osborn, Vladimir Shishov, Minhui He, Shuyuan Kang, Lea Schneider, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Jussi Grießinger, Danqing Huang, Peng Zhang, Stefanie Talento, Elena Xoplaki, Jürg Luterbacher, Nils Chr. Stenseth

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Abstract

The Qin and Western Han dynasties (221 BCE to 24 CE) represent an era of societal prosperity in China. However, due to a lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records it is still unclear whether the agricultural boost documented for this period was associated with more favorable climatic conditions. Here, multiparameter analysis of annually resolved tree-ring records and process-based physiological modeling provide evidence of stable and consistently humid climatic conditions during 270 to 77 BCE in northern China. Precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon region during the Qin–Western Han Dynasties was ~18 to 34% higher compared to present-day conditions. In shifting agricultural and pastoral boundaries ~60 to 100 km northwestward, possibility up to 200 km at times, persistently wetter conditions arguably increased food production, contributing to the socioeconomic prosperity around 2,200 y ago. A gradual wetting trend in the western part of arid northwestern China since the 1980s resembles the historical climate analogue, suggesting that similar benefits for regional environmental and agricultural systems may reoccur under current climate change, at least in the near term.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2415294121
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume122
Issue number1
Early online date23 Dec 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Jan 2025

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