Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations

Philip Jones; C. Harpham; C.M. Goodess; C.G. Kilsby

doi:10.5194/npg-18-503-2011

Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations

Philip Jones, C. Harpham, C.M. Goodess, C.G. Kilsby

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for perturbing Weather Generators (WGs) for future decades and to assess its effectiveness. Here the procedure is applied to the WG implemented within the UKCP09 package and assessed using data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation which provides a significant "climate change" between a control run period and a distant future. The WG is normally calibrated on observed data. For this study, data from an RCM control period (1961-1990) was used, then perturbed using the procedure. Because only monthly differences between the RCM control and scenario periods are used to perturb the WG, the direct daily RCM scenario may be considered as unseen data to assess how well the perturbation procedure reproduces the direct RCM simulations for the future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	503-511
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Volume	18
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-503-2011
Publication status	Published - 22 Jul 2011

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Cite this

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Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations

Abstract

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