Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations

Philip Jones, C. Harpham, C.M. Goodess, C.G. Kilsby

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for perturbing Weather Generators (WGs) for future decades and to assess its effectiveness. Here the procedure is applied to the WG implemented within the UKCP09 package and assessed using data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation which provides a significant "climate change" between a control run period and a distant future. The WG is normally calibrated on observed data. For this study, data from an RCM control period (1961-1990) was used, then perturbed using the procedure. Because only monthly differences between the RCM control and scenario periods are used to perturb the WG, the direct daily RCM scenario may be considered as unseen data to assess how well the perturbation procedure reproduces the direct RCM simulations for the future.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)503-511
Number of pages9
JournalNonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Volume18
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Jul 2011

Cite this