Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

V. N. Livina; F. Kwasniok; T. M. Lenton

doi:10.5194/cp-6-77-2010

Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

V. N. Livina, F. Kwasniok, T. M. Lenton

School of Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

138 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	77-82
Number of pages	6
Journal	Climate of the Past
Volume	6
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010
Publication status	Published - 17 Feb 2010

Access to Document

10.5194/cp-6-77-2010Licence: CC BY

138 Citations (Scopus)
1 Preprint

Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr
Livina, V. N., Kwasniok, F. & Lenton, T. M., 2009, 5 ed., Copernicus Publications, p. 2223-2237, 15 p. (Climate of the Past Discussions).
Research output: Working paper › Preprint

Open Access

Cite this

@article{172d9aaf4eec49e9852c532a3b893253,

title = "Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr",

abstract = "We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.",

author = "Livina, {V. N.} and F. Kwasniok and Lenton, {T. M.}",

note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. ",

year = "2010",

month = feb,

day = "17",

doi = "10.5194/cp-6-77-2010",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

pages = "77--82",

journal = "Climate of the Past",

issn = "1814-9332",

publisher = "European Geosciences Union",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

AU - Livina, V. N.

AU - Kwasniok, F.

AU - Lenton, T. M.

PY - 2010/2/17

Y1 - 2010/2/17

N2 - We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

AB - We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

U2 - 10.5194/cp-6-77-2010

DO - 10.5194/cp-6-77-2010

M3 - Article

SN - 1814-9332

VL - 6

SP - 77

EP - 82

JO - Climate of the Past

JF - Climate of the Past

IS - 1

ER -