Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

VN Livina; F Kwasniok; TM Lenton

doi:10.5194/cp-6-77-2010

Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

VN Livina, F Kwasniok, TM Lenton

School of Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

117 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	77-82
Number of pages	6
Journal	Climate of the Past
Volume	6
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-77-2010
Publication status	Published - 17 Feb 2010

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10.5194/cp-6-77-2010Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr",

abstract = "We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.",

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