Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables

C. G. Kilsby; P. S. P. Cowpertwait; P. E. O'Connell; P. D. Jones

doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X

Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables

C. G. Kilsby, P. S. P. Cowpertwait, P. E. O'Connell, P. D. Jones

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

97 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	523-539
Number of pages	17
Journal	International Journal of Climatology
Volume	18
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X
Publication status	Published - Apr 1998

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10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X

Cite this

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title = "Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables",

abstract = "Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed.",

author = "Kilsby, {C. G.} and Cowpertwait, {P. S. P.} and O'Connell, {P. E.} and Jones, {P. D.}",

note = "Funding information: EC Environment Research Programme under the POPSICLE project. Grant Number: EV5V-CT94-0150, Climatology and Natural Hazards",

year = "1998",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X",

language = "English",

volume = "18",

pages = "523--539",

journal = "International Journal of Climatology",

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T1 - Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables

AU - Kilsby, C. G.

AU - Cowpertwait, P. S. P.

AU - O'Connell, P. E.

AU - Jones, P. D.

N1 - Funding information: EC Environment Research Programme under the POPSICLE project. Grant Number: EV5V-CT94-0150, Climatology and Natural Hazards

PY - 1998/4

Y1 - 1998/4

N2 - Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed.

AB - Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed.

U2 - 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X

DO - 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X

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VL - 18

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EP - 539

JO - International Journal of Climatology

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