Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a data-rich environment

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Abstract

I propose a Bayesian approach to identify vector autoregressive (VAR) models via proxies in a data-rich environment. The setup augments a small-scale VAR model with latent factors. It allows to trace out the responses of disaggregated series in a unified model while controlling for broad economic conditions. The posterior sampler accounts for the estimation uncertainty in these latent factors as well as the measurement precision of the proxy. In a first application to monetary policy, I extract factors from a wide range of real and financial series and find that the effects of monetary policy shocks vary along the yield curve. In a second application to oil market shocks I add disaggregated US series to a standard model of the global oil market. I find that negative news about future oil supply have adverse effects on the US economy.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104046
JournalJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Volume123
Early online date5 Dec 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2021

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